Climate Changes
Introduction
Asia is defined as the land and territories of 51 countries/ regions and it can be broadly divided into 6 sub-regions based on geographic position and coastal peripheries.
Central Asia (5 countries)
East Asia (7 countries/regions)
North Asia (2 countries)
South Asia (8 countries)
Southeast Asia (12 countries)
West Asia (17 countries)
Major Conclusions from Previous Assessments
Asia, the world's most populous continent, faces distinct difficulties that differ depending on the climate zone.
The most noticeable change in climatic trends may be seen in the rising nighttime temperatures and rising surface air temperatures, especially during the winter. This is accompanied by monsoon rainfall variability, which can be seen across seasons, years, and geographical locations.
There is mounting evidence that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and more intense across Asia.
Future climate predictions indicate that North Asia's higher latitudes will experience more warming. By the end of the 21st century, projections indicate that agriculture and food security will be significantly impacted, notably in the field of cereal output.
Features of the Regional and Sub-Regional Level Climate-Related Features Asia has a wide range of climate characteristics, including mountain climate, spanning all temperature zones, from tropical to polar. South, Southeast, and East Asia are dominated by monsoonal winds and the precipitation they produce.
Annual surface wind speeds have been decreasing in Asia since the 1950s (high confidence)
The observed changes in the frequency of sand and dust storms vary from region to region in Asia.
The frequency and intensity of dust storms are increasing in some regions, such as West and Central Asia, due to land use and climate change.
Significant decreasing trends of dust storms are observed in some parts of Inner Mongolia and over the Tibetan Plateau.
In contrast, West Asia has witnessed more frequent and intensified dust storms affecting Iran and Persian Gulf countries in recent decades.
Large temperature extremes increase is observed in West and Central Asia high confidence.
The temperature increase is causing strong, more frequent and longer heatwaves in South and East Asia.
The 2013 East China heatwaves case is such an example of Xia and others.
In 2016 and 2018, extreme warmth was observed in Asia for which an event-attribution study revealed that this would not have been possible without anthropogenic global warming medium confidence Immediately.
projected Climate Change
Rising temperatures increase the likelihood of the threat of heatwaves across Asia, droughts in arid and semiarid areas of West, Central and South Asia, floods in monsoon regions in South, Southeast and East Asia, and glacier melting in the HKH region.
Projections of future changes in annual mean surface air temperature in Asia are qualitatively similar to those in the previous assessments with greater warming at higher latitudes.
Projected surface air temperature changes in the Tibetan Plateau, Central Asia and West Asia are also significant.
Relative SLR associated with climate change in Asia will range from 0. 30. 5 m in SSP 1-2. 6 to 0.7-0.8 m in SSP 5-8.5 for 2081-2100 relative to 1995-2014.
In coastal regions, evaluation of SLR is necessary at the regional scale to assess the impacts on coastal sectors investigated the regional-scale SLR using dynamic downscaling from the three global-climate models in the western North Pacific.
• Observed Climate Change
• Observations of past and the current climate in Asia are assessed in IPCC WGI AR6 IPCC, 2021.
• Examples of observed impacts in Asia with attributed CIDs are shown in Surface temperature has increased in the past century all over Asia with very high confidence.
Ecological Characteristics
• Ecosystems in Asia are characterized by a variety of climate and topographic effects and can be divided into several distinct areas. In addition, valuable ecosystem services provide vital support for human well-being and sustainable development IPBES, 2018.
• Boreal forests and tundra dominate in North Asia deserts and xeric shrublands in Central and West Asia and alpine ecosystems in the HKH, Tian Shan, Altai-Sayan, Ural and Caucasus Mountain regions. Human-transformed landscapes occupy most parts of other sub-regions.
• Demographics and Socioeconomic Characteristics In the six sub-regions of Asia, nature and biophysical impacts of climate change are observed in three climate-change hotspots where strong climate signals and high concentrations of vulnerable people are present, namely in semiarid, glacial-fed river basins and mega deltas De Souza et al.
The increase in energy demand at a rapid rate in these countries thus cannot be attributed only to population growth and rising living standards, but also to increasingly extreme temperature variations.
The decrease in precipitation influences energy demand as well, as countries are becoming more dependent on energy-intensive methods (E.g., desalination, underground water pumping) to supply water. Similarly, energy systems are influenced by the way the agriculture sector, mainly in Al Mashrek, relies increasingly on energy-intensive methods (e.g., more fertilizers, and different irrigation and harvesting patterns).
Key drivers to vulnerability with observed and projected impacts.
Universal energy access is a big challenge for Asia.
About 230 million Indian people lack facilities for electricity, and around 800 million still use solid fuels for cooking.
The average electricity access rate in South Asia was 74%. It is the equivalent of 417 million people without electricity and accounting for more than a third of the global 1.2 billion lacking access.
With a total population of nearly 640 million in ASEAN, an estimated 65 million people remain without electricity and 250 million use solid biomass for cooking fuel.
Universal access to electricity is expected to be achieved by 2030, while 1.6 billion people in Asia will still lack clean energy for cooking.
In order to cope with climate change, renewable energy has become the core of energy development and transformation.
The decline of near-surface wind speed in Asia is consistent with the general decline of global land-surface wind speeds, among which the frequency of strong winds and the decline in wind speed are more prominent.
At the same time, with the increase in the proportion of renewable energy in the power system, the power system will be more vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather and climate events, and the vulnerability and risk of the power system will greatly increase.
Adaptation Options
The solution would be to develop a resilient energy system and avoid the risk of unsustainable energy growth in developing Asia.
Promoting renewable energy resources, securing local natural gas resources, enhancing water production and adopting green-building technologies are also adaptations.
The improvement of energy efficiency and demand-side management can alleviate supply constraints and thus lower required energy capacity.
Energy storage, smart grids for the electricity network, and other flexible management measures enable this energy demand to shift.
Energy System
Regional Diversity
Energy consumption in Asia accounts for 36% of the global aggregate at present.
China, India and the ASEAN countries have largely contributed to the ever-growing global energy consumption.
The current energy structure of Asia is dominated by fossil energies.
As the trend indicates, the share of coal in China’s primary energy consumption is read to sprucely decline in 2019.
Since coal may meet their soaring energy demand, in discrepancy, India and ASEAN calculate more on coal.
Consequently, further, 80% of the global coal will be consumed in Asia by 2050.
China will surpass the USA about 10 times to come the world’s largest oil painting consumer and India will also replace the USA to be the second largest by the late 2040s.
The rapid-fire growth of energy demand in Asia reinforces the region’s position as the largest energy importer.
The increase in energy demand at a rapid-fire rate in these countries therefore cannot be attributed only to population growth and rising living norms, but also to decreasingly extreme temperature variations.
The drop in rush influences energy demand as well, as countries are getting more dependent on energy- ferocious styles (E.g., desalination, underground water pumping) to supply water.
also, energy systems are told by the way the husbandry sector, substantially in Al Mashrek, relies decreasingly on energy- ferocious styles (e.g., further diseases, and different irrigation and harvesting patterns).
Crucial motorists to vulnerability with observed and projected impacts. Universal energy access is a big challenge for Asia.
About 230 million Indian people warrant installations for electricity, and around 800 million still use solid energies for cuisine.
The average electricity access rate in South Asia was 74%.
It's the fellow of 417 million people without electricity and accounts for further than a third of the global 1.2 billion lacking access.
With a total population of nearly 640 million in ASEAN, an estimated 65 million people remain without electricity and 250 million use solid biomass for cooking energy.
Universal access to electricity is anticipated to be achieved by 2030, while 1.6 billion people in Asia will still warrant clean energy for cuisine.
In order to manage climate change, renewable energy has come to the core of energy development and metamorphosis.
The decline of near-face wind speed in Asia is harmonious with the general decline of global land-face wind pets, among which the frequency of strong winds and the decline in wind speed are more prominent.
At the same time, with the increase in the proportion of renewable energy in the power system, the power system will be more vulnerable to climate change and extreme rainfall and climate events, and the vulnerability and threat of the power system will greatly increase.
Adaptation Options
The result would be to develop a flexible energy system and avoid the threat of unsustainable energy growth in developing Asia.
Promoting renewable energy coffers, securing original natural gas coffers, enhancing water products and espousing green-structure technologies are also acclimations.
The enhancement of energy effectiveness and demand-side operation can palliate force constraints and therefore lower needed energy capacity.
Energy storehouses, smart grids for the electricity network, and other flexible operation measures enable this energy demand to shift.
Furnishing enough energy force is a top precedence to extend the connections to those without access to electricity and satisfy the soaring demand.
The investment in non-fossil powers like renewables has been expanding to influence profitable growth in China, India and the Republic of Korea.
Diversifying energy sources increases energy security and therefore the adaptability of the whole system.
The deployment of renewable energy is extensively recognized as a pivotal measure for enhancing energy access and diversity.
There remains a huge eventuality for renewable sources in Asia. e., India has massive solar power implicit Shukla et al. numerous renewable technologies. e., hydro- and wind power as well as solar photovoltaics are getting competitive, and their life-cycle costs may fall below those of coal and natural gas in the near term.
Great progress has been made in enhanced geothermal systems EGS and in the conventional and unconventional emulsion power that China is promoting.
Conventional and underground pumped hydropower will level out inventories for intermittent renewable energy generation.
Substantial progress may be fulfilled by adding the share of renewable energy to the overall energy consumption of Asia.
Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems
Sub-regional diversity of ecosystems is high in Asia.
Global warming, precipitation, Asian monsoon alteration, permafrost thawing, and extreme events like dust storms are climate-impact drivers of Asian terrestrial ecosystems (ATS) change.
Non-climatic human-related factors are also affecting.
Observed Impacts
Biomes and mountain tree line
Changes in biomes in Asia are compatible with a response to regional surface air temperature increase.
Examples
1. Alpine treeline position in Asian mountains in recent decades either moves upwards in North Asia.
2. In the Himalayas, the treeline moves upwards and does not show upslope advance, or move downwards.
3. North Asia tree expansion into mountain tundra and steppe.
4. Increase in tree stands productivity in the past 30–100 years at the upper treeline in the Ural Mountains.
5. Lower treelines in the southernmost Larix sibirica forests in the Saur Mountains, Eastern Kazakhstan, have suffered from increased drought stress in recent decades causing forest regeneration and tree growth to decrease, and tree mortality to increase.
6. The combination of warming, increasing competition, and frequent tropical cyclone disturbances could lead to population decline or extinction of ABKO at Jeju Island.
This can be explained by a site-specific complex interaction of the positive effect of warming on tree growth, and negative effects of drought stress, change in snow precipitation, inter- and intraspecific interactions of trees and shrubs, land-use change, and other factors.
It is largely unknown how broader-scale climate inputs, such as pre-monsoon droughts, interact with local-scale factors to govern treeline response patterns.
Species ranges and biodiversity
New evidence has appeared of alterations in terrestrial and freshwater species, populations and communities in line with climate change across Asia.
In North Asia, temperature increases and droughts have promoted the spread northward of the current silk moth outbreak in Central Siberia dark taiga since 2014.
The climatic range of the Colorado potato beetle in 1991–2010 expanded east and northward in Siberia and the Russian Far East compared with the 1951–1970 range.
The climatic range of Ixodes ricinus, a vector of dangerous human diseases, expanded into Central Asia and south of the Russian Far East.
A butterfly in the Middle, Urals moved northward.
Thrush birds in West Siberia penetrated northward up to the limits of the sparse woodlands.
The increase in the length of the frost-free period observed in the Ilmen Nature Reserve, Middle Urals, during recent decades is supposed to be interlinked with changes in the amplitude and frequency of population waves of the bank vole.
In Katunskiy Biosphere Reserve, Russian Altai, in the period 2005–2015, alpine plant species have shifted towards higher altitudes by 5.3 m on average.
Wild reindeer herds in Taimyr, north of Central Siberia, migrated northward to the Arctic Sea coast in hot summers between 1999–2003 and 2009–2016 because of an earlier massive emergence of bloodsucking insects.
In Yakutia, the ranges of red deer, elk and the northern pika are expanding, and the winter survival of the mouse-like rodents has increased.
In the Chukchi Sea, in recent decades the average duration polar bears spent onshore increased by 30 d in line with global warming and the rapid decline of their sea ice habitat.
In Central Kazakh Steppe, in line with warming, in 2018 there were more ‘southern’ sub-arid species in the communities and fewer relatively ‘northern’ boreal and polyzonal species of ground beetles and black beetles than in 1976–1978.
The present distribution of Asian black birch in East and North Asia was formed as a result of northward expansion during post-Last Glacial Maximum global warming.
Both the upper and lower limits of the avifauna of two New Guinean mountains, Mt.
Karimui and Karkar Island, have been shifting upslope since 1965.
In the Republic of Korea, for the past 60 years, the northern boundary line of 63 southern butterfly species has moved further north.
The change in the butterflies’ occurrence in this period has been influenced mostly by large-scale reforestation, not by climate change.
Warming-driven geographic range shift was recorded in 87% of 124 endemic plant species studied in the Sikkim Himalaya in the periods 1849–1850 and 2007–2010.
In Darjeeling, India, significant change in lichen community structure was shown in response to climate change and anthropogenic pollution.
The observed loss of biodiversity and habitat of animals and plants has been linked to climate change in some parts of Asia.
Climate change, together with human disturbances, has caused the local extinction of some large and medium-sized mammals during the past three centuries in China.
Climate change has shown significant impacts on subalpine plant species at low altitudes and latitudes in the Republic of Korea and may impose a big threat to these plant species.
Climate change has caused habitat loss of amphibians and the extinction of some endemic species in Sri Lanka.
There is evidence that climate change can alter species interaction or spatial distribution of invasive species in Asia.
Climate warming has enhanced the competitive ability of native species against invasive species in China under a mesocosm experiment in a greenhouse.
Increased the non-target effect on a native plant by a biological control beetle in China due to the range expansion of the beetle and change of phenology of the plant.
Expanded the distribution of invasive bamboo northward and upslope in Japan while soil dry-down rates have been a key driver of the invasion of dwarf bamboo in central Hokkaido above and below the tree line.
Wildfires
Climate change, human activity and lightning determine increases in wildfire severity and area burned.
Vulnerabilities to Key Drivers
Both natural and managed ecosystems, ecosystem services and livelihoods in Asia will potentially be substantially impacted by changing climate. There will be an increased risk for biodiversity, particularly many endemic and threatened species of fauna and flora already under environmental pressure from land-use change and other regional and global processes. Biomes shift not only serves as a signal of climate change but also provides important information for resource management and ecotone ecosystem conservation. A warmer and longer growing season will increase vulnerability to fires, although fires can be attributed both to climate warming and to other human and natural influences.
Adaptation Options
Modelling of the interactions between climate-induced vegetation shifts, wildfire and human activities can provide keys to how people in Asia may be able to adapt to climate change.
Conservation and sustainable development would benefit from being tailored and modified considering the changing climatic conditions and shifting biomes, mountain belts and species ranges.
Expanding the nature reserves would help species conservation; to facilitate species movements across climatic gradients, an increase in landscape connectivity can be elaborated by setting up habitat corridors between nature reserves and along elevational and other climatic gradients.
Assisted migration of species should be considered for isolated habitats such as mountain summits or where movements are constrained by poor dispersal ability.
Introducing seeds of the species to new regions will help to protect them from the extinction risk caused by climate change.
In Asian boreal forests, a strategy and integrated programmes should be developed for adaptation of the forests to global climate change, including sustainable forest management, firefighting infrastructure and forest fuel management, afforestation, as well as institutional, social and other measures in line with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15 ‘Life on Land’.
Improvements in forest habitat quality can reduce the negative impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services.
Adaptation options for freshwater ecosystems in Asia include increasing connectivity in river networks, expanding protected areas, restoring hydrological processes of wetlands and rivers, creating shade to lower temperatures for vulnerable species, assisted the translocation and migration of species.
Reduction of non-climate anthropogenic impacts can enhance the adaptive capacity of ecosystems.
Ocean and littoral ecosystems
